West Maui Climate Modeling

This project delivers urgently needed, actionable projections of climate hazards for Kāʻanapali, Lāhainā, and Kealaloloa moku, West Maui—addressing sea level rise, wildfire, extreme heat, declining rainfall, deepening drought, and coastal erosion. These multiple threats endanger communities, cultural sites, and ecological resilience. Using cutting-edge, high-resolution digital elevation models and integrating refined hydrodynamic models, we will identify who and what is most at risk across landscapes and infrastructure. A risk and vulnerability analysis co-developed with community and government leaders will pinpoint the most promising, culturally rooted, nature-based restoration actions and guide urgent decisions about fuel loads, water management, and heat adaptation. Incorporating wildfire planning, projections for heat and drought, and new real-time groundwater data will give West Maui the scientific foundation needed to design adaptive measures for true community resilience.